In the 2019 Assembly elections in Odisha BJD won 46 out 71 seats where the victory margin was LESS than 9%. 19 out 46 were with less than 5% margin.
13 of the 46 BJD wins were over Congress with around 5% margin.
33 of the 46 BJD wins were over the BJP with around 6% margin.
In the worst case scenario for BJD if BJP were to convert these 33 into wins by gaining a mere 6-7% vote share that should take their tally to 55. If Congress decimates itself the way they are going today those 13 could well be up for grabs for the BJP in a bi-polar election scenario as it was in Bengal. This could further up their tally to 68.
The projected figure along the lines of the above scenario the tally could stand as BJD 67, BJP 68, Cong 10, Independent 1, CPI (M) 1.
BJP as is known has the bank balance to win a horse trade and can safely be expected to buy at least 20% of the opposition and that could bring their tally up to 84. Then we have the scenario of defectors. Rats will leave a sinking ship as we have seen in the case of the Congress across India and might we see them leaving the BJD. This would up the BJP tally further enough to form the Govt.
In not so grim a scenario the BJD might lose out 50% of the 46 seats but that will again bring the BJP within striking range considering the demise of the grand old party, the INC.
The BJD should introspect quickly and strengthen its ground work in the SC/ST constituencies where it won 35/50 seats. 17/35 seats were with less than 9% margin of which 10 were with less than 5% margin. The SC/ST policies and its reach, governance, education, health & livelihood are the major working points if BJD were to retain the pole position in Odisha Assembly elections in 2024.
Opinion shared by Sabyasachi Mishra
